Staking Plan Comparison Calculator — Level vs Percentage vs Progression
Run the same bets through different staking plans and see which grows the bank without busting it.
Two bettors can back the exact same selections at the same odds and walk away with wildly different results — because they staked differently. The staking plan, not just the picks, decides how much you win and whether you survive the losing runs. This calculator runs one set of bets through several staking plans at once so you can see the difference, not argue about it.
Enter a strike rate and average odds and it builds a sample betting record, then stakes that same record three ways — level stakes, a percentage of your bank, and a Fibonacci progression — starting from a $1,000 bank. You get each plan’s final bank, return on turnover, worst drawdown and whether it busted. Change the seed to see a different run of the same profile.
How it works
A staking plan answers one question: given this bet, how much do I put on? "Level" risks the same flat amount every time. "Percentage" risks a fixed share of your current bank, so stakes shrink as you lose and grow as you win. A progression like Fibonacci increases stakes after losses to chase the loss back — which can recover quickly but also dig a deep hole.
The honest way to judge a plan is to hold the bets fixed and only change the staking. That removes luck-of-the-picks from the comparison: every plan sees the identical wins and losses in the identical order, so any difference in the final bank is purely the staking. Flat and percentage plans are hard to bust; aggressive progressions can post a big number on a good run and zero on a bad one.
This free version uses a synthetic record so you can explore the idea. With a free account, the full Proving Ground tool runs all the classic staking plans on synthetic data — and Pro adds your real, imported betting history with drawdown charts and a shuffle test that reruns the same bets hundreds of times to expose plans that only worked because of a lucky ordering. The six proprietary Grail Systems are available on The Grail.
Same bets, different staking → final bank = starting bank + Σ (stakeₚₗₐₙ × outcome). Only the stake rule changes.
Worked example
- Level stakes (2% flat) — steady, low drawdown, hard to bust
- Percentage of bank (2%) — compounds on good runs, self-protects on bad ones
- Fibonacci — chases losses; bigger swings and a real bust risk
- Same 500 bets through each → the final banks show the staking difference, not the picks
Synthetic illustration. Past or simulated performance does not predict future results.
FAQ
- Does the staking plan really change my results?
- Yes — dramatically. On identical bets, different plans can finish anywhere from a small steady profit to a busted bank. The picks set your edge; the staking decides how that edge compounds and whether you survive variance.
- Which staking plan is best?
- There is no single best plan — it depends on your edge, your bankroll and your tolerance for swings. Flat and percentage plans are the safest; progressions like Martingale and Fibonacci can grow fast but carry real ruin risk. Backtesting on your own record is the only honest way to choose.
- Are progression/recovery plans worth it?
- They can recover losing runs quickly, but they stake the most exactly when you are losing — so a long-but-normal cold streak can bust them. The Proving Ground’s shuffle test reveals how often that happens across re-orderings of the same bets.
- Can I test this on my own betting history?
- All the classic staking plans are free with an account (on synthetic data). Pro backtests your real Bet Tracker history or a CSV/Excel import, with equity curves and bust analysis; The Grail adds the six proprietary systems.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. It is educational staking-and-bankroll software that simulates outcomes you provide. It does not place bets, predict results, or tell you what to back.
This compares three plans on synthetic data. Proving Ground backtests every staking plan against your own real betting history.
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