Losing Streak Calculator — How Long Is Normal & Bankroll Needed
Your Expected Losing Sequence — how long a losing run is normal, and the bankroll that survives it.
Even a winning method goes through losing runs — that’s variance, and it’s unavoidable. This calculator works out, from exact probability, how long your longest losing streak is likely to be over a series of bets, and the bankroll you’d need to ride it out.
This is your Expected Losing Sequence (E.L.S.): enter your strike rate (or decimal odds) and how many bets you plan to place, and it returns the typical, 95th-percentile and 99th-percentile longest losing run, plus a bankroll table. The figures are computed exactly — not estimated from a simulation.
How it works
The maths is exact — a dynamic-programming calculation of the longest-losing-run distribution, not a simulation estimate. The single most useful number is the 95th-percentile streak: the run length only about one series in twenty will exceed.
Multiply that streak by your stake and you have the bankroll that survives normal variance. Plan to the 95% line at least; to the 99% line if going bust would be a disaster.
P(loss) = 1 − strike rate; the longest-run distribution is computed exactly from P(loss) and the number of bets
Worked example
- Typical longest losing run: ~15
- 95% worst case: 21 · 99%: 25
- At $100 a bet, surviving the 95% streak needs ~$2,100
These are exact figures for these inputs — not a prediction of any single run.
FAQ
- What is the Expected Losing Sequence (E.L.S.)?
- The longest run of consecutive losses you can normally expect over a series of bets, given your strike rate. This calculator reports it exactly — the typical, 95th and 99th-percentile run — so you can size a bankroll to survive it.
- How long a losing streak is normal?
- It depends on your strike rate and how many bets you place. At ~33% over 1,000 bets, a run of around 15 losses is typical and 21+ is a normal unlucky case.
- Is the E.L.S. simulated or exact?
- Exact. It’s a dynamic-programming calculation of the longest-losing-run distribution, not a Monte-Carlo estimate — so the figures don’t wobble from run to run.
- How big should my bankroll be?
- At least your stake times the 95th-percentile streak. If busting would end your betting, plan to the 99th-percentile figure.
This estimates one streak. Bankroll Variance computes the exact longest-losing-run distribution and the bankroll that survives it.
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