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Staking & bankroll management

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The proof, including the parts that lost

Six staking plans. The same 500 bets. Three ended at zero.

One run from Proving Ground, seed 1. The bets underneath were a losing book — struck 32.2% at average odds of $2.94, where break-even is 34.0%. No staking plan fixed that. All they changed was how much of the bank survived the variance.

$1,000 starting bank · 500 bets · final bank
6-Point Divisor$1,087.67+3.4%
Level stakes$558.16−4.4%
Percentage of bank$524.32−4.0%
D'Alembert$0bust — 13-loss run
Fibonacci$0bust — same run
Martingale$0bust — 9-loss run

Fibonacci was the best performer on the chart for most of the run — it turned $1,000 into roughly $33,000 just past halfway. Then a 13-bet losing run arrived and it finished at zero. Not drawn down. Zero, with nothing left to bet. The plan that finished in front was the dullest one: up 3.4%, with a worst drawdown of 15% against Fibonacci's 100%.

One ordering proves nothing

Shuffle those same 500 bets 500 times — same bets, same strike rate, only the order changes — and count how often each plan runs out of bank. Someone who says a progression “worked for them” is usually telling the truth: they lived in one of the orderings where it did.

D'Alembert100%
Fibonacci100%
Martingale98%
Level stakes5.8%
Percentage of bank0%
6-Point Divisor0%

Share of 500 reshuffles in which each plan ran out of bank.

Load seed 1 and you get these figures to the cent. Your own history will say something different — that is the point of running it.

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Nine tools, one account

Bring your own selections; OutlayHQ does the money management. Tools marked Grail are the proprietary systems.

CompoundFree preview · Grail

Compounding accumulators with a cloud bankroll tracker.

Edge ProtocolFree preview · Grail

Turn an estimated edge into a disciplined stake.

Regal Stake Pro MaxFree preview · Grail

Press a good run without going all-in.

ResurgenceFree preview · Grail

Stage a disciplined comeback from a losing run.

The MintFree preview · Grail

Mint steady profit across parallel columns from one bank.

Bankroll VarianceFree

Size your bankroll for normal losing-streak variance.

Bet TrackerFree

See your real edge: P&L, ROI and closing-line value over time.

Proving GroundFree

Backtest 21 staking plans on your own betting history.

ApexFree preview · Grail

Ratchet a bankroll upward in protected cycles — stake from the peak, bank the reserve.

Grail

The Grail Systems

Six staking systems — Compound, Edge Protocol, Regal, Resurgence, The Mint and Apex — drawn from original sources decades old, rebuilt faithfully and verified against their source workouts. Available nowhere else, and testable: backtest them against your own betting history in Proving Ground. Every punter chases the holy grail; we don’t claim these are it — we give you the machine to find out.

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How it works

1
Create a free account

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2
Pick a tool

Size and manage your stakes with the right calculator or staking tool for the job.

3
See your real edge

Track every bet and measure your P&L, ROI and closing-line value over time.

What you can actually do with it

Real betting scenarios — the honest-maths way.

Check a tipster honestly

Log their picks at level stakes and see the real return — before any staking trick flatters it.

Open the Bet Tracker
Pressure-test a plan before risking a cent

Backtest any staking plan on your own history in Proving Ground, then size your bank for the losing runs in Bankroll Variance.

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Paper-trade a new system

Run it in the Bet Tracker with real odds and no money down — your P&L and closing-line value tell you if it works.

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Six original staking systems, rebuilt and verified against their source workouts, at full depth on The Grail.

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What it costs

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Free
A$0

Every public calculator and all the classic staking plans. Prove the maths works.

Pro
A$14.99/mo

Or A$119/yr. Your real betting: full Bet Tracker, CLV, and backtests on your own history.

The Grail
A$29.99/mo

Or A$249/yr. Adds the six original staking systems at full depth.

Founders' Grail — A$499 once, lifetime

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